WASHINGTON (Pajhwok): Kabul's political dysfunction and ineffectiveness will be “almost certainly” the greatest vulnerability to stability in 2017, a top American intelligence official says.
Director of National Intelligence Daniel Coats told lawmakers the overall situation in Afghanistan was likely continue to deteriorate even with international support.
“Endemic state weaknesses, the government's political fragility, deficiencies of the Afghan forces (ANSF persistence and regional interference will remain key impediments to improvement,” he warned.
Testifying before members of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, he said Afghan forces’ performance would probably worsen due to a combination of Taliban operations, combat casualties, desertions, poor logistics support and weak leadership.
“The ANSF will almost certainly remain heavily dependent on foreign military and financial support to sustain themselves and preclude their collapse,” Coats continued.
Although the Taliban could not seize a provincial capital in 2016, they effectively navigated its second leadership transition in two years after the death of Mullah Mansour Akhtar and might make gains in 2017, he said.
“The fighting will also continue to threaten US personnel, allies and partners, particularly in Kabul and urban population centers. ISIS's Khorasan branch (ISIS-K) will probably remain a low-level developing threat to Afghan stability as well as to US and Western interests in the region in 2017,” Coats said.
He predicted Pakistani-based terrorist groups would present a sustained threat to US interests in the region and continue to plan and conduct attacks in India and Afghanistan.
Pakistan might be able to manage its internal security, he believed, saying anti-Pakistan groups would focus more on soft targets. Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, Al-Qaeda, ISIS-K, Laskhar-i-Jhangvi may pose threats to Pakistan's internal security.
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