<p><a href="/en/afganistan/kabul" class="glossify-link">KABUL</a> looks set to intensify during the current year, warns an independent international organisation.</p>
<p>The objective behind the US strategy is to halt the Taliban’s momentum and, eventually, force the rebel group into a political settlement. But at the moment, the strategy is exclusively military.</p>
<p>In a report, the International Crisis Group (ICG) said the strategy -- facing serious obstacles -- was unlikely to change the war’s course or the incentives of a locally-rooted and potent insurgency.</p>
<p>Military leaders contend this time will be different because Trump, unlike Obama, has not set a withdrawal timeline but the argument holds little water, according to the Brussels-based group.</p>
<p>The parliamentary election -- slated for July 2018 and a presidential vote due in 2019 -- would suck oxygen from the military campaign, the report warned. “Every vote since 2004 has ignited some form of crisis...”</p>
<p>Seeking to prevent conflict, ICG noted the political discord today was particularly severe, with President Ashraf Ghani accused by his critics of monopolising power in the hands of a few advisors.</p>
<p>It added America’s regional diplomacy had so far centered on pressuring <a href="/en/pakistan" class="glossify-link">Pakistan</a>; yet the calculations that motivated Islamabad’s support for the insurgency were unlikely to change.</p>
<p>“The Taliban also now enjoy ties to Iran and Russia, which claim to view it as a bulwark against an Islamic State branch in Afghanistan that is small but resilient -- and also capable of mounting high-profile attacks.</p>
<p>“Washington’s militarized approach and diminished diplomacy risk signaling to those countries that it seeks not to stabilise and leave Afghanistan but to maintain a military presence.”</p>
<p>ICG agreed that sustained US support might reinforce the morale of the Afghan National Army. A precipitous withdrawal, in contrast, could trigger chaos, it maintained.</p>
<p>The Trump administration was asked to keep open lines of communication to the insurgency open and explore the contours of a settlement with Afghanistan’s neighbours and other regional powers.</p>
<p>“As it stands, that strategy sets the stage for more violence while closing avenues for de-escalation. Afghan civilians will pay the price,” the report concluded.</p>
<p><a href="/en/pan" class="glossify-link">PAN</a> Monitor/mud</p>
