US pullout rumours to affect talks with Taliban

KABUL are largely exaggerated, says UK-based weekly magazine.

The Economist wrote the reports appeared plausible, in so far as Trump had just announced a withdrawal from Syria and had publicly wavered about keeping any troops in Afghanistan at all in 2017, before deciding to increase their number from 8,400 to 14,000.

“Yet the sudden reversal had come out of the blue. The Afghan government and startled allies with troops in Afghanistan, such as Britain, said they had not been consulted and were awaiting confirmation,” it added.

According to the widely-circulated weekly, the biggest immediate impact of the rumours of a withdrawal could be on nascent peace negotiations with the Taliban.

It was last year that the Trump administration embraced efforts to find a political settlement. In December, US envoys held talks with Taliban representatives in the hope of launching formal negotiations.

Trump’s point man on Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad assured the Taliban that the US would never abandon the Afghan government and that peace talks were therefore the only way to end the stalemate.

With no confirmation of the drawdown yet, a White House spokesman contradicted the reports on December 28, saying Trump had not ordered a pullout. The commander of US forces in Afghanistan has not yet received any marching orders.

However, the speculation has once again called into question the American leader’s commitment to the 17-year-old war in Afghanistan.

In late 2001 American forces invaded Afghanistan to hunt for Osama bin Laden and aid the militias that had ousted the Taliban regime in enforcing security.

The American presence peaked in 2010, at more than 100,000 troops. But even then, The Economist said, America could not eradicate the Taliban insurgency.

As Afghan forces have formally been leading the war since 2014, the remaining US troops are mainly training their local partners, though a mini-surge allowed American advisers to be stationed on the frontline to provide more hands-on assistance.

“Even so, the Taliban and other insurgents are thought to have been killing perhaps 30-40 Afghan soldiers and police a day in recent months. Many analysts wonder whether the Afghan army can sustain such punishing losses in the long run, let alone the higher casualties that would presumably follow if it lost American training and air support.”

President Ashraf Ghani has dismissed concerns that security would plummet after an American pullout. But the insurgency is escalating. A recent oversight report found only 55% of the country’s territory is under the government’s control or influence. And the Afghan security services are 40,000 recruits, or 11%, below their target strength, the lowest level since 2012.

mud

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