US Intel report says large-scale war ‘unlikely’ to topple Iran’s govt

KABUL (Pajhwok): Even a large-scale United States military offensive would likely be unable to overthrow Iran’s military and clerical power structure, according to a classified report by the National Intelligence Council (NIC), media reports said.

The Anadolu news agency, citing The Washington Post, reported that three sources familiar with the classified document indicated it undercuts US President Donald Trump’s claim that he could “clean out” Iran’s leadership and install a preferred successor, suggesting such an outcome would be far from certain.

The NIC, composed of senior analysts, produces classified assessments reflecting the consensus of all 18 US intelligence agencies.

Completed about a week before the US and Israel launched their military operation on Feb. 28, the report analyzed scenarios in which Iran’s leadership could be targeted through either limited strikes or broader attacks on government institutions.

The assessment indicated that even if Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei were killed, Iran’s military and clerical leadership would likely follow established succession mechanisms, preserving the existing power structure.

Sources familiar with the findings also noted it was “unlikely” that Iran’s fragmented opposition could seize power.

The report did not evaluate other potential strategies, such as deploying US ground troops in Iran or arming Kurdish groups to spark an uprising and it remains unclear whether the scenarios examined align with the ongoing military operations.

Regional tensions have escalated since the Feb. 28 attacks, which killed more than 1,000 people, including Khamenei, over 150 schoolgirlsnand senior military officials.

Iran has retaliated with extensive missile and drone strikes targeting US bases, diplomatic facilities, military personnel and multiple Israeli cities.

sa